Hi there! They say that food inflation is finally decelerating (it’s not, carry on though), but the damage has already been done - these prices are here to stay. Who or what is to blame? From extreme heat to crop disease, decades of underinvestment in agriculture, global conflict, and short-sighted land use; there’s a complex network of factors driving food prices sky-high.

Below, I take a look at these culprits and explore some of the ways we can fix this mess. Anyone remember the “Inflation Reduction Act” from 2022...? Hmm, it’s almost like it’s not working.

In tech news, OpenAI has warned users not to fall in love with its chatbots, NASA has decided to replace Boeing with SpaceX due to safety concerns, and advanced US tech like semiconductors are still somehow finding their way to Russia.

That’s not all. Scroll down to check out some curated highlights from social media, words of wisdom, tech news, people to follow, and more. 

Let’s dive in. 

Brace yourselves, folks - the food crisis is here, and it's not going away any time soon. 

You’ve seen the headlines. Lettuce is up 10.3% November to May. Eggflation is back (9.5%), and tomatoes have jumped 3.9%. Even though food inflation is currently decelerating, depending on your data source, the cumulative effects of several years of high inflation have made the price of food a key election issue in 2024. Grocery shoppers like you and me have come to realize that prices are never going back to 2019 levels.  

It's not just one single factor to blame; it's a perfect storm of geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, disease outbreaks, and economic woes that are all converging to drive food prices through the roof. And the scariest part? This is just the tip of the iceberg.

What’s clear to supply chain professionals is that the highly integrated global food system is particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions. Shocks on the other side of the planet can easily be amplified and felt here in the US. 

Let's start with disease. We're so worried about the next pandemic, but what about fatal diseases that can wipe out entire crops? Take the incurable disease ravaging orange trees in Brazil - it's led to a 42% spike in the price of orange juice concentrate in the US. The deadly H5N1 bird flu has decimated egg production, sending those prices soaring as well, and the Cavendish banana will soon be extinct when it loses its long battle against a deadly fungus. 

We’re seeing growing patterns of water scarcity - and in other areas, water excess - threatening agriculture across the USA. Climatic extremes spell big trouble for areas like California where the Sierra Nevada snowpack is projected to decline by up to 65% by 2100. Farmers in the Yakima Basin will struggle to grow potato, alfalfa, and apple under a severe warming scenario, while aquifers in the Southwest will no longer be able to rely on snowmelt. Groundwater withdrawals and evaporative losses in Kansas will rise, and the Cornbelt is likely to experience crop disruption due to excessive rainfall and higher temperatures. 

It’s grim, but the threats don't end there. Climate change, extreme heat, and major weather events like the El Niño-fueled cocoa shortages in West Africa have sent chocolate prices skyrocketing. Domestic production of all US citrus fruit took a massive hit last year due to disease, heat, and hurricanes.  

A 2024 study published in Nature confirmed what we already knew: high temperatures during already hotter months persistently increase food inflation in both high- and low-income countries. Heat stress leads to shrinking crop yields, higher water usage (for both crops and suffering livestock), and dead pollinators.

And don't even get me started on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global cereal supplies. It’s not just about the crops they grow on Ukrainian soil; it’s the fact that any conflict, anywhere, drives up oil prices. Higher oil prices mean shipping costs go up, along with the cost of running agricultural machinery and the fertilizers that rely heavily on oil. Suddenly, a box of Cap’N Crunch starts to feel like a premium purchase.

What about land use? Experts predict domestic biofuel production will increase by 53% by 2035. These crops can’t be grown in the desert - they need good agricultural land. Prime land - which has some protection through the Farmland Protection Policy Act (FPPA) - is always under pressure from environmental degradation, population growth, urban sprawl, and (increasingly) the search for land to site wind and solar farms.   

Those who point to the simple notion of supply and demand as the culprit would say that for food security and long-term price stability, yields must go up. GM crops can help, but production costs are rising due to overexploitation of agricultural land and the intensive use of agrochemicals. 

Overregulation doesn’t help. Every new regulation increases production costs or makes it harder to access markets, which in turn makes food prices soar. California’s highly regulated ag sector, for example, meant that retailers couldn’t bring in eggs from other states to replace high stock losses during the H5N1 crisis. As a result, consumers paid higher prices for longer.  

Shocks to the food system are only going to become more frequent and severe. It's a terrifying prospect - one that should have us all demanding action to shore up our dangerously fragile global food supply.

Yet, as alarming as all of this is, the powers that be seem to be asleep at the wheel. There's a shocking lack of investment and attention paid to the agricultural sector. We invest enormous resources into military security and energy security. Why not food security?

Because we’ve slept-walked into relying on the global supply chain to save us. But things are just as bad - or worse - around the globe… nobody is coming to save you.

So, what can we do? For starters, we need to wake up and demand that our leaders take this crisis seriously. Making food prices an election issue this November is a good start. We need urgent, coordinated action to strengthen food supply chains, invest in sustainable agriculture, and protect our crops from the growing threats of extreme weather, disease and climate change. The last thing that will fix this are food price controls!

We also need technological solutions and decision-support tools. There are some brilliant examples in the water management space, like OpenET, an open-access data platform that provides field-level satellite-based evapotranspiration data, and the Groundwater Accounting Platform, which helps growers track water availability and use in near real-time.

What’s going on in the world of technology? Plenty. Here’s some news that caught my attention:

OpenAI warns users about falling in love with AI voices: Warning about the threat of a real-life Her situation, OpenAI wrote that AI’s ability to remember and bring up key details from previous conversations “creates both a compelling product experience and the potential for over-reliance and dependence.” From what I’ve read, that horse has well and truly bolted. 

Advanced US tech is still being funneled to Russia: The Biden admin has announced new rules aimed to “disrupt the procurement networks funneling semiconductors and other advanced tech to Russian forces” for use in their war on Ukraine. Suppliers are banned from sending advanced products to suppliers on an expanded entity list which includes companies and shell organizations all over the world. Keep your eyes on this!  

Stranded ISS astronauts to return to Earth with SpaceX, not Boeing: After a troubled launch where the Boeing Starliner experienced a helium leak and malfunction in five of 28 reaction control thrusters, NASA has decided the astronauts must wait for a SpaceX Dragon Capsule, no earlier than February 2025.

Don't wait until the end of the year to focus on intentional gifting; the holiday season will be here before you know it! Be sure to follow Amanda Klingenberger, founder & CEO of Linden Square.

Amanda is a life-long learner, a Starbucks loyalist, a logophile, and a Marvel movie junkie. She also runs a Full-Service gift company located in the heart of the Midwest where they create beautifully inspired gifts for sales & marketing, mtg & event planners, and HR pros.

Make sure to follow Amanda and keep your eyes on what she's up to… or perhaps check out Linden Square for your corporate gifting programs!

Cruisin' down the center of a two way street,
Wondering who is really in the driver's seat.
Mindin' my business along comes big brother,
Says, "Son you better get on one side or the other".

Oh oh, I'm out on the border
Oh oh, I'm walkin' the line
Don't you tell me 'bout your law and order
I'm tryin’ to change this water to wine

The Eagles | On The Border

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See you next time!

– Kris

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